Tensions Rise: Is an India-Pakistan War on the Horizon?
April 23, 2025 – New Delhi/Islamabad
The deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu & Kashmir—claimed by Pakistan-backed group The Resistance Front—has once again raised concerns over escalating tensions between nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan.
India has responded sharply, downgrading diplomatic ties and summoning Pakistan’s envoy. The rhetoric has intensified, with public outcry demanding a strong military response. Security along the Line of Control has been heightened, and political leaders have called for “decisive action.”
However, full-scale war remains unlikely, according to defense analysts. Here’s why:
1. Nuclear Deterrence
Both nations possess nuclear weapons. The doctrine of "mutually assured destruction" continues to prevent large-scale conflict, despite provocations.
2. International Pressure
The global community, including the US, UK, and UN, has condemned the attack and urged restraint. Diplomatic pressure plays a key role in de-escalation.
3. Economic Consequences
Both economies are fragile post-pandemic. War would severely impact trade, foreign investment, tourism, and internal development.
4. Past Precedents
India has increasingly favored “surgical strikes” or intelligence-based operations (like Balakot in 2019) over conventional war.
5. Internal Focus
Both countries are grappling with domestic challenges—elections, inflation, and unemployment—which discourage prolonged military engagement.
Conclusion:
While the situation is volatile and could trigger short-term skirmishes or covert operations, a full-blown war is still considered a last resort. Vigilance, diplomacy, and strong global mediation remain key to maintaining fragile peace in South Asia.
